Can we expect a major war during 2019? The nearest we came to (nuclear) war during 2018 was the US/North Korea stand off. Defusing the Korean crisis was Trump's most successful. Summit diplomacy. Russia's new hypersonic weapons technology as well as Russia's pivoting towards Beijing thanks to western sanctions, have given these countries a significant edge. China remains Russia's largest and strategically most significant ally in Asia. The upcoming 2020 November Presidential elections will also prevent a sharp deterioration in US/China relations. The two countries will eventually come to some accommodation on their current trade disputes. It must also be noted that the Trump administration is very much aware that war with China or Iran in an election year I said not very desirable not be waged with a31 trillion debt. China cannot be isolated, given its profound economic integration into the world economy. The world today stands at a crossroads of a new multi polar world. As Trump already conceded, the US cannot be the policeman of the world anymore. America's hegemonic aspirations have come to an end.
Tom Van Meurs
5 January 2019
Tom Van Meurs
5 January 2019
