Friday, April 23, 2010


Look at the graph and be worried. It was drawn by the United States Department of Energy and the US Military Joint Forces Command. The supply of the world's most essential source of energy is almost exhausted. Not in the distant future, but in a couple of years. Production of all liquid fuels, including oil, will drop within 20 years to half of what it is to-day. The Iranians know this too and they are preparing for the future. Nuclear bombs are useless to them; they won't be able to use them against Israel (see Post 46). Production of petroleum has been dropping at a rate slightly over 4% per year at least and will continue to do so for the indefinite future. The graph shows that we are past the peak production and that there are 750 billion barrels of conventional oil left. Assuming that the remaining reserves were 900 billion or more at the half way point, than we are at least 150 billion barrels, or five years past the midpoint. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years. The United States Joint Forces Command concurs with these specific findings at 31 million bpd equivalent to half the US entire consumption. To make up the difference, the world has to find another Saudi Arabia and get it in full production in five years. Needless to say a complete impossibility. The production from existing convential sources will plummet from its present 81 bpd to 30 million bpd by 2030, a 63% drop in 20 years. You will find that petrol prices will gradually go up over the next few years.